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BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
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Latest analysis from Australia

  • Research Briefings | Jul 24 2017
    Australia will not be leaning toward tightening just yet. The end of the commodities boom has led to structural changes that are shifting resources – particularly labour – out of the mining sector....
    NEW REPORT | Jul 24 2017
    This report examines the overall structure of retailing in Australia and draws out key trends and issues in terms of both trading conditions and investment performance. It focuses on the main classes...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 21 2017
    China is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 20 2017
    Provides a respected and independent medium term assessment of the Australian building industry outlook. Building in Australia contains demographic trends and detailed forecasts of residential...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jul 20 2017
    Recent data have confirmed our view that growth will remain steady in the short term. Merchandise exports rebounded in May after a sharp contraction in April (a result of disruption caused by Cyclone...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 07 2017
    Indonesia is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
  • Data Insights | Jul 06 2017
    Strong surpluses continue in May, with the trade balance strengthening to $2.5 billion. Driving this was strength in both rural (2.9% m/m) and non-rural (12.7% m/m) goods exports, while imports also...
    Data Insights | Jul 04 2017
    The Reserve Bank Board met today and, as widely expected, decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.The Board assessed that GDP growth is tracking below trend — with spare capacity in the...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 03 2017
    Vietnam is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 03 2017
    The Philippines is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential...
    Data Insights | Jun 27 2017
    The first release of the 2016 Census highlighted an additional 82,000 people (0.3% of the population) living in Australia compared to the ABS’ previous estimates. At the state level the biggest...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jun 26 2017
    The national accounts data reported a very surprising 1.6% contraction in export volumes in the first three months of the year, which dragged quarterly GDP growth down to just 0.3% q/q. Domestic...
  • NEW REPORT | Jun 22 2017
    Malaysia is an evolving market which is driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for the residential,...
    NEW REPORT | Jun 15 2017
    This report examines the commercial office market in Canberra. It provides a 10 year forecast of supply and demand variables, vacancies, prime rents, yields and market values. Investment returns and...
    NEW REPORT | Jun 13 2017
    Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020 is a comprehensive report that provides a detailed and independent view of the fundamentals of the residential market and how they interact to drive activity...
    NEW REPORT | Jun 09 2017
    This report examines the commercial office market in Perth. It provides 10 year forecasts of demand and supply variables as well as vacancies for the metropolitan and CBD markets. 10 year forecasts...
    Data Insights | Jun 08 2017
    After a record AU$9bn surplus in Q1 2017, the trade balance fell back to AU$0.6bn in April (from AU$3.1bn in March). Driving this decline was a sharp fall in non-rural goods exports (-11.8%m/m), while...
    Data Insights | Jun 07 2017
    As expected, Australia's economy slowed in the first three months of the year; GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q1 2017(1.7% y/y) down from 1.1% in the December quarter. ​
  • NEW REPORT | Jun 07 2017
    Singapore is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    Data Insights | Jun 06 2017
    ​The Reserve Bank Board left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at its meeting today. The Board highlighted that there are some signs of improvement in the labour market, but inflation remains low and...
    NEW REPORT | May 16 2017
    This report provides 10-years forecasts of crucial market variables including: office completions, withdrawals and net additions; office employment growth and workspace ratios; vacancy rates; A and B...
    NEW REPORT | May 15 2017
    Comprehensive analysis for the inner city apartment markets of Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. These studies identify and analyse separate inner city apartment precincts in each capital city,...
    Viewpoints | May 12 2017
    After several years of pushing for significant spending cuts in the budget the government has now taken a different tack, reversing cuts previously announced, expanding spending on core services and...
    Country Economic Forecasts | May 11 2017
    The latest data support our view that momentum in the economy remains solid but not spectacular. ‘Soft’ indicators such as business confidence surveys remain in expansionary territory and, despite...
  • NEW REPORT | May 10 2017
    Thailand is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    Data Insights | May 09 2017
    ​After several years of pushing for significant spending cuts in the budget, the government has now taken a different tack, reversing cuts previously announced, expanding spending on core services and...
    NEW REPORT | May 05 2017
    Hong Kong is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    NEW REPORT | May 04 2017
    This report provides detailed forecasts for 12 sub-sectors of activity including roads, bridges, railways, harbours, water, sewerage, electricity, telecommunications, recreation, pipelines, mining and...
    Data Insights | May 04 2017
    ​The trade balance dropped slightly but remained positive in March (at AU$3.1bn) for the fifth consecutive month.  Although impressive exports were slightly weaker than expected, with Cyclone Debbie...
    Data Insights | May 02 2017
    ​The RBA held the cash rate at 1.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting. The economy continues to evolve as the Board expect. Momentum in the global economy has built up since the start of the year,...
  • NEW REPORT | Apr 18 2017
    This report assesses the market and prospects for commercial property in major suburban office markets of North Sydney, Crows Nest and St Leonards, Chatswood, Parramatta and Macquarie Park over the...
    Research Briefings | Apr 17 2017
    There is a broad political consensus that Australia needs to return its government budget to surplus, with the current Liberal-Nationals Coalition government pledging to achieve this by fiscal year...
    NEW REPORT | Apr 12 2017
    This is BIS Oxford Economics' 16th study on the non-CBD office markets of Melbourne. Developed as a companion report to the Melbourne Commercial Property study on the metropolitan market and the CBD,...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Apr 12 2017
    High frequency data suggest that the economy has built on the recovery in output in Q4 2016. Business confidence surveys remain in expansionary territory and the trade surplus climbed back in February...
    NEW REPORT | Apr 06 2017
    This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Brisbane CBD, the Near City and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, premium, A and B...
    NEW REPORT | Apr 04 2017
    This report provides forecasts (and methodology) for the CBD and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancies, CBD prime and B grade rents, yields and...

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Jul 26 2017
    EM assets still carry a sizeable premium relative to their DM counterparts despite 18 months of inflows. Robust world growth and plentiful liquidity leave few apparent reasons for concern about...
    Research Briefings | Jul 24 2017
    Beware the current conventional thinking on when and how the global central banks will scale back QE. While our baseline scenarios are very much in line with the “keeping it simple’ philosophy of...
    Research Briefings | Jul 21 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for July, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. We focus on central bank dilemmas, China’s resilience being a bit stronger and its impact...
    Research Briefings | Jul 19 2017
    ​Our assessment of global credit indicators suggests there’s a risk that world growth could dip from the current rate of around 3% to closer to 2.5% later this year, but possibly pick up again in...
    Research Briefings | Jul 13 2017
    ​The recent rates tantrum has further boosted our long-running view of US dollar weakness. Relative repricing of central banks' policy paths boosts their respective currencies (euro, sterling, Swedish...
    Research Briefings | Jul 12 2017
    ​Earnings growth momentum remains positive in most major markets. But valuations are rich, and markets are contending with adverse shocks such as the recent mini-rates tantrum and further oil price...
  • Research Briefings | Jul 11 2017
    The Bund market had been ripe for a repricing for some time. Although a wider sell-off looks unlikely, we think European bonds will continue to underperform their US and Australian counterparts....
    Research Briefings | Jul 10 2017
    The oil price decline and back-up in core bond yields have appeared as threats to the relatively mature global equity bull market. For now, we see these threats as contained. Global growth moderation...
    Viewpoints | Jul 05 2017
    ​The minutes from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting underscore that the start of the balance sheet reduction is on course for this year. However, some policymakers preferred to start within a "couple of...
    Research Briefings | Jul 04 2017
    Central banks are understandably anxious to move away from very low interest rates and their recent comments have sparked a ‘rate tantrum’. But even with the recent global upturn our cross-country...
    Research Briefings | Jun 30 2017
    Falling oil prices, rising geopolitical risks and expensive valuations have made us more bearish on the RUB’s outlook. Once again, oil prices are expected to take centre stage in driving the RUB’s...
    Viewpoints | Jun 30 2017
    Shifts in some major central banks' policy language have raised the risk of a tightening in global financial conditions through sharply higher bond yields. However, we do not see a violent global bond...
  • Research Briefings | Jun 29 2017
    ​Policymakers, most notably in the US, have been expecting wage growth to pick up for some time as job markets tighten. But the data over the last six months have shown few indications of wage...
    Research Briefings | Jun 27 2017
    ​Markets are more tolerant of fiscal expansion than governments typically fear. The composition of major economies’ government debt has become safer, and this is reflected in our estimates of a new...
    Research Briefings | Jun 23 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for June, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. We focus on the strength and durability of China's role in the global upturn.
    Viewpoints | Jun 22 2017
    ​The G20 summit on July 7-8 provides an opportunity for policymakers to tackle key issues that are holding back world growth, such as creeping protectionism, slow productivity growth and unhelpful...
    Research Briefings | Jun 22 2017
    Any clear indication of the ECB’s plans to unwind asset purchases is likely to be an adverse shock for European government bond markets. We expect Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos to be more vulnerable...
    Viewpoints | Jun 22 2017
    ​Turkey and South Africa are clearly the bottom 'two' of the scorecard. Turkey's vulnerability score has deteriorated further in the last month, driven by the latest evidence of a marked...
  • Viewpoints | Jun 21 2017
    ​MSCI’s decision to include mainland Chinese shares in its emerging markets index ultimately only has symbolic value. The actual portfolio flows impact is miniscule given the proposed 0.73%...
    Viewpoints | Jun 16 2017
    ​With global bond yields heading lower again as inflation fears recede amid the shortage of “safe assets”, G7 governments are underestimating their ability to provide more fiscal stimulus and break...
    Research Briefings | Jun 16 2017
    ​We identify how “defaultlessness” factors affect fundamental valuations across 50 EM sovereigns. The factors – characterised by the smaller share of sovereign dollar debt relative to total debt –...
    Viewpoints | Jun 14 2017
    ​As fully anticipated, the FOMC raised the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 1% - 1.25%. Additionally, in line with our expectations, the FOMC announced its plan for balance sheet reduction...
    Research Briefings | Jun 06 2017
    ​The China-commodity nexus has been at the heart of the global upturn in trade and industry. It could directly and indirectly account for as much as 70% of the recovery since mid-2016, based on our...
    Research Briefings | Jun 05 2017
    Insufficient late-cycle growth acceleration amid richer valuations means that expected equity returns are low in most markets. EPS growth resurgence in key markets means the equity bull market should...
  • Research Briefings | Jun 05 2017
    The true test awaits. Despite recent populist defeats, there is a strong likelihood that populist parties will fare well in forthcoming Italian elections—and an outside chance that a populist...
    Research Briefings | May 26 2017
    EM sovereign dollar debt, in our view, offers favourable long-term value as governments issue an ever-greater share of debt in their own currency. In the event of a crisis, many would no longer go...
    Viewpoints | May 26 2017
    ​Turkey and South Africa are clearly the bottom 'two' of the scorecard, scoring much worse than the countries ranked third and fourth-most vulnerable. Over the last month Turkey's vulnerability score...
    Research Briefings | May 25 2017
    ​​Depressed volatility despite high policy uncertainty signals to us that complacency has crept into global markets. This may look justified given better earnings growth, liquidity and sentiment....
    Research Briefings | May 22 2017
    ​A sizeable, export-oriented manufacturing sector is key for unlocking sustained growth and catch up in emerging market economies (EMs), our survey of the largest EMs confirms. Furthermore, to...
    Research Briefings | May 19 2017
    In our global macro chartbook for May, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. We focus on the prospects for a sustained global upturn.
  • Research Briefings | May 17 2017
    The strong rally in emerging market (EM) assets over the past 15 months has further to run, bolstered by improved global risk sentiment, enhanced monetary frameworks, and attractive valuations in most...
    Research Briefings | May 15 2017
    ​Recent months have seen clear gains in world trade and industrial output, but the durability of this trend remains uncertain. The causes of the upswing include stronger Chinese demand, higher...
    Research Briefings | May 12 2017
    Investors in EM assets have further residual upside despite the strong rally over the last 15 months. However, the best rewards to risk are in markets with still high idiosyncratic risk premia (Turkey...
    Research Briefings | May 11 2017
    Emerging market currencies have become more volatile since the global financial crisis, stoked by an increased sensitivity to a number of global risk factors such as stocks, bonds, commodities and the...
    Viewpoints | May 09 2017
    ​​Gilts are among the richest bond markets globally, trading at ~120bp​​​ yield discount to US Treasuries in the 10-year sector. While our end-2017 forecasts imply a shrinking of this discount to...
    Research Briefings | May 04 2017
    ​Inflationary pressures in major economies will remain contained. The China-related boost to global demand will ease next year; a modest tightening in labour market conditions will be mostly offset by...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.