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BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
***106th BUSINESS FORECASTING CONFERENCE – MARCH 2017***

Latest analysis from Australia

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Mar 28 2017
    The UK serving its divorce papers on the EU tomorrow will not herald another plunge in sterling. We think the pound is significantly undervalued. It hasn’t broken below the October lows despite the...
    Research Briefings | Mar 24 2017
    An overload of expectations and rich valuations amid global reflation mean the dollar wont benefit much from positive US surprises. Steady growth in other blocs is beginning to challenge the...
    Viewpoints | Mar 21 2017
    The latest vulnerability scorecard shows Turkey, South Africa and Malaysia as the most fragile economies, with Turkey's situation deteriorating further over the last month because of a worsening...
    EMS | Mar 21 2017
    Emerging market (EM) currencies may have entered a long cycle of strength, unless significant risks materialise. We see positive momentum; and EM currencies have historically tended to follow long...
    Research Briefings | Mar 20 2017
    In our global macro chartbook, we summarise our take on current global themes as well as our key macro and asset views. This month, in particular, we discuss reflation as well as forces that are...
    Viewpoints | Mar 17 2017
    Oil prices have tumbled in March as the market loses confidence in the OPEC rebalancing story. While OPEC compliance has been very high at 98%, non-OPEC cuts have been feeble and US production is set...
  • Research Briefings | Mar 16 2017
    Could the Trump era resemble the 1980s Reaganomics boosted world growth but not necessarily in the ways people think and not for emerging markets (EMs), a larger part of todays world economy....
    Viewpoints | Mar 15 2017
    As widely telegraphed by Fed officials and fully anticipated by financial markets, the Fed lifted the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 0.75%-1.00%. There were no large surprises in the...
    Research Briefings | Mar 15 2017
    The residual risk-reward in the Trump trade is far from generous. The bar for markets to be surprised is much higher. Despite the tailwind from strong earnings and positive sentiment, S&P could...
    Viewpoints | Mar 10 2017
    Explicit Fed speak and a strong February employment report confirm the FOMC will lift short-term interest rates by 25 basis point at the upcoming March 14-15 FOMC policy meeting. The key question is...
    Viewpoints | Mar 03 2017
    Manufacturing activity accelerated dramatically toward the end of last year across many large economies, confirming signals from survey-based indicators. Inventory patterns and a supportive policy...
    Viewpoints | Feb 27 2017
    In most areas of the scorecard Turkey continues to score very poorly. Its external financial situation remains weak, including a marked fall in its foreign exchange reserves in H2 2016, while there...
  • Research Briefings | Feb 23 2017
    Finding value in emerging market (EM) currencies has been complicated by the election of President Trump and the resulting shake up of global financial markets. We develop some metrics to compare...
    Viewpoints | Feb 22 2017
    The hawkish tone of the minutes of the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting echoed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony. The minutes make it clear that Fed officials are...
    Research Briefings | Feb 17 2017
    In our global macro chartbook, we summarise our take on current global themes as well as our key macro and asset views. This month, in particular, we explore the implications of upcoming elections in...
    Research Briefings | Feb 17 2017
    The prospect of aggressive US tariffs against China and Mexico remain a concern, and the economic impacts will ripple far beyond the targeted countriesincluding potentially the US itself. We examine...
    Research Briefings | Feb 16 2017
    Without a new productivity miracle it is hard to see global growth improving much from its modest pace: we expect world growth at 2.6% p.a. in 2016-25, a shade lower than in 2006-15. Stronger growth...
    Viewpoints | Feb 14 2017
    Chair Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony was mildly hawkish, but still points to gradual rate hikes this year. We maintain our call that the Fed tightens in June, but see rising risk...
  • Research Briefings | Feb 14 2017
    ​The Trump administration has wasted no time in drafting a multitude of executive orders and memorandums shaping the economic landscape. However, major policy changes will require support from...
    Viewpoints | Feb 13 2017
    With Republicans in charge of the White House and Senate, Fed Governor Tarullo's resignation from the FOMC board was anticipated. There are two large implications. First, President Trump can fill...
    Research Briefings | Feb 13 2017
    Anyone hoping that more populist victories around the world will spark further Trump-like rallies will likely be disappointed. The US President wooed markets with promises of fiscal largesse, which...
    Viewpoints | Feb 10 2017
    The latest escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine does not seem to have deterred President Trumps desire to normalise relations with Russia. But a bi-partisan consensus is emerging in the US...
    Research Briefings | Feb 08 2017
    Consumers will have to tighten their belts again after a few years of plenty. The combination of higher inflation, rising debt servicing costs and a slowdown in job creation across the globe is...
    Research Briefings | Feb 06 2017
    On the surface, history is reassuring. Fed tightening cycles have typically been accompanied by benign economic and market outcomes, both in the US and globally. But two key episodesthe fiscal...
  • Viewpoints | Feb 03 2017
    Global composite PMI at a 22-month high signals continued economic strength, but regional differences emerge in January data. Momentum in the US and the Eurozone is robust as suggested by PMIs and...
    Viewpoints | Jan 23 2017
    The most noticeable feature of the EM scorecard this month is that Brazil has 'escaped' from the bottom three. With the forecast elements of the scorecard now focused on 2017 rather than 2016, Brazil...
    Research Briefings | Jan 23 2017
    Strong global surveys overstate the likely pace of world GDP growth in 2017 despite expectations of significant fiscal stimulus in the US. Although most indicator readings are at the highest for...
    Research Briefings | Jan 19 2017
    The dollar rally since the US election is a potentially negative development for emerging markets (EM), as our analysis suggests the previous period of dollar gains from 2014-16 was a drag on EM...
    Research Briefings | Jan 19 2017
    In our global macro chartbook, we summarise our take on current global themes as well as our key macro and asset views. This month, in particular, we explore the rise of populism and its impact on...
    Research Briefings | Jan 12 2017
    Get ready for more populist governments. There is now sufficiently widespread backing for global populism that at least one further victory in a major economy is very likely in the next year or so,...
  • Research Briefings | Dec 21 2016
    In our global macro chartbook we summarise our macro and asset views. We also highlight the contributions of our recent research on key global themes.  This month we...
    Research Briefings | Dec 15 2016
    Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact of Donald Trumps surprise election victory in November.  The full effect of reflationary policies under the new Trump...
    Viewpoints | Dec 07 2016
    We believe Donald Trump’s election will not mark an immediate change in America’s foreign policy and we expect the US sanctions on Russia to remain intact in and beyond 2017. In Europe, next year’s...
    Research Briefings | Dec 02 2016
    Wage growth has been relatively slow since 2007 in advanced economies, but an upturn may be in sight. Slow productivity growth remains an issue but tighter labour markets make a positive response by...
    Viewpoints | Dec 01 2016
    The OPEC meeting in Vienna caught the oil market by surprise with an agreement to cut output by 1.2mb/day to 32.5mb/day. This was in-line with the previous announcement in September, but this time...
    Viewpoints | Nov 23 2016
    The relative rankings in the EM vulnerability scorecard have not changed much over the last six months. Turkey, South Africa and Brazil remain at the bottom of the rankings i.e. the most vulnerable,...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.