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Commercial Property

BIS Shrapnel is recognised as Australia’s pre-eminent forecaster of commercial property markets. We aim to help our clients better understand future property market directions and guide strategic business decisions.
Market Forecasting Reports

BIS Shrapnel undertakes regular forecasting reports on the office, industrial, retail, large format retailing, and hotel sectors across Australia’s major capital cities. Each report contains a thorough analysis of the drivers of demand and supply, as well as 10 year forecasts of the major market variables of demand, supply, rents, yields and values, as well as indicative investment returns.  

Within each report, we provide a succinct explanation of the logic supporting our forecasts and discuss the implications for, and appropriate timing of property decisions relevant to market participants. Our forecasting reports are the central component of the forecasting and advisory service we offer clients.

Analysis and Forecasting Service: Annual subscription includes:

  • Data & Forecasts: 35 years of historical data plus 10 year forecasts
  • Reports: Accompanying the forecasts, our reports detail logic, underlying assumptions, methodologies, alternative scenarios, strategy, opportunities and risks
  • Investment Value Pricing Model
  • Quarterly ‘Underlying Demand’ analysis
  • Market Briefings
  • ‘Round Table’ forums
  • Access to senior analysts
Key Unit Contacts
Frank Gelber 
Chief Economist and Director
fgelber@bis.com.au

Beverley Taylor 
Director
btaylor@bis.com.au

Christian Schilling 
Senior Project Manager
cschilling@bis.com.au

Maria Lee 
Senior Project Manager
mlee@bis.com.au

Lee Walker
Senior Project Manager
lwalker@bis.com.au

Investa has been a subscriber to BIS Shrapnel’s Commercial Property Reports for many years. As an organisation we value quality research, and as a result we incorporate BIS Shrapnel’s insights into our own forecasting process.

We have good long standing relationships with the team, who provide us with flexible and knowledgeable service.

Pete Carstairs
General Manager, Research, Investa Office

Commercial Property

This report provides forecasts (and methodology) for the CBD and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancies, CBD prime and B grade rents, yields and market values are included. Prospective investment returns and strategies for leasing and investment are analysed.

This report assesses the market and prospects for commercial property in major suburban office markets of North Sydney, Crows Nest and St Leonards, Chatswood, Parramatta and North Ryde over the next 10 years.

This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Melbourne CBD and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, prime and secondary rents, yields and market values are included. Investment returns and strategies for leasing and investment are analysed.

This report provides forecasts and strategies for the various Melbourne metropolitan office markets, looking at the relationships between the CBD and suburban centres. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, stated and effective rents, yields and market values are included. Investment returns and strategies for leasing and investment are analysed.

This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Brisbane CBD, the Near City and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, premium, A and B grade (A grade only in the Near City) rents, yields and market values are included, forming the basis for the analysis of investment returns and strategies for leasing and investment.

This report provides 10-years forecasts of crucial market variables including: office completions, withdrawals and net additions; office employment growth and workspace ratios; vacancy rates; A and B grade face and effective rents in gross and net terms, as well as leasing incentives (CBD); A and B grade yields, capital values and internal rates of return (CBD).

DECEMBER 2014 UPDATE NOW AVAILABLE 
This report examines the commercial office market in Perth. It provides a 10 year forecast of supply and demand variables, vacancies, prime and secondary rents, yields and market values. Investment returns and strategies for leasing and investment are analysed.

DECEMBER 2014 UPDATE NOW AVAILABLE 
This report examines the commercial office market in Canberra. It provides a 10 year forecast of supply and demand variables, vacancies, prime rents, yields and market values. Investment returns and strategies for leasing and investment are analysed.

Retail Property

This report examines the overall structure of retailing in Australia and draws out key trends and issues in terms of both trading conditions and investment performance. It focuses on the main classes of institutional investment in the retail sector, and specifically considers prospects for regional and sub-regional shopping centres.

This report traces the development of the large format retail phenomenon and assesses the outlook for large formatretailing in Australia. This report provides five year forecasts of rents, yields and capital values for large format retailcentres. Future market balance is assessed and investment risk and return issues are addressed.

Industrial Property

This report provides a careful analysis of drivers of demand for and supply of industrial space and their implications for the leasing and investment markets. Based on our in-house forecasts of the Australian and New South Wales economies, we supply 10 year forecasts of demand for and construction of warehousing and factory space, then use the result as the basis for our forecast of rents, yields, capital values and prospective IRRs for prime and secondary property across Sydney four major industrial regions.
This report provides a careful analysis of drivers of demand for and supply of industrial space and their implications for the leasing and investment markets. Based on our in-house forecasts of the Australian and Victorian economies, we supply 10 year forecasts of demand for and construction of warehousing and factory space across metropolitan Melbourne, then use the result as the basis for our forecast of rents, yields, capital values and prospective IRRs for prime and secondary property.
This report provides a careful analysis of drivers of demand for and supply of industrial space and their implications for the leasing and investment markets. Based on our in-house forecasts of the Australian and Queensland economies, we supply 10 year forecasts of demand for and construction of warehousing and factory space, then use the result as the basis for our forecast of rents, yields, capital values and prospective IRRs for prime and secondary property.

Hotel Property

This 2012 report examines the outlook for demand for hotel accommodation – both domestic and international – focussing on holiday and business visitors which are the key sources of demand for 4 & 5 star accommodation. Matching demand with our forecasts for supply enables us to forecast occupancy rates and in turn room rates and RevPAR for 4 & 5 star accommodation. The report also considers investment and development issues and forecasts investment returns to 2021. Particular attention is given to the likely duration of the upswing.