Everyone remains worried about the slow train wreck that is the European debt crisis. Despite this, the Australian economy is accelerating. The minerals investment boom and the associated activity are providing a floor under growth. Furthermore, households appear comfortable enough with their position to start spending again.
The high Australian dollar, weak demand in key international markets, and modest demand outside the mining industry means many other trade-exposed industries are in decline. Non-trade-exposed firms also remain on the sidelines due to low confidence, excess capacity, declining Government spending, and difficult funding conditions. Hence, investment and employment remains weak, which is a concern for medium-term growth. An important silver lining is that inflation is falling and the RBA has lowered interest rates. BIS Shrapnel is pleased to invite you to our 96th biannual conference on the Australian economy, building and property industries. Held biannually, since 1964, these half day briefings will provide a concise overview of these sectors to assist businesses with short to medium-term planning and budgeting through to mid/late 2013. Delegates receive a set of Conference papers, including the 18 month forecasts, along with a summary of the analysis and commentary.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BRIEFING
Minerals investment boom will underpin growth, despite concerns about European debt and world growth.
- Global economy: What next for Europe? Has the US avoided recession? Sustainability of Chinese growth? What is the role of currency imbalances?
- How much activity is the minerals investment boom really creating?
- When will non-mining-related businesses have the need and confidence to increase employment and investment?
- Are households spending again? For how long, and on what?
- What impact will the Government’s return to surplus have?
- What response from the RBA? Implications for lending rates?
- Will housing recover before interest rates rise again? What about rents?
- Casualties from strong minerals prices, investment and the $A.
- What should we make of carbon price, tax initiatives and regulation?
- Directions and drivers. Winners and Losers. Prospects by sector and state.
This session is accredited by the Financial Planning Association of Australia for 3 points of Continuing Professional Development Generic Knowledge – The Economic Environment - Accreditation #005188
Speakers:
Dr Frank Gelber - Chief Economist
Richard Robinson - Senior Economist
LUNCHEON
Australia’s Carbon Price – Will the sky fall in?
Australia’s carbon price will commence in July 2012. This major economic reform will deliver disincentives to emit carbon dioxide, but also incorporate tax reform, industry assistance, investment incentives and price effects for consumers. What are the key impacts? Will the investment signals be strong enough? Does it spell the end of Australian industry or is it a competitive necessity?
Guest Speaker: Nathan Fabian – Chief Executive Officer, Investor Group on Climate Change Australia/New Zealand
BUILDING INDUSTRY PROSPECTS BRIEFING
The decline in residential commencements in 2011 appears to have bottomed out in line with a pick up in first home buyers. Will the fall in interest rates in recent months help the turnaround gain traction through 2012? Public sector spending in health will drive non-residential building in 2012, but when will improving commercial and industrial building make a greater contribution?
- Has the decline in net overseas migration bottomed out? What are the direct and indirect impacts on the building and property markets?
- Can the pick up in first home buyer demand at the end of 2011 continue to drive residential turnover and upgrader demand for new dwellings?
- Will alterations and additions remain weak or can a recovery in turnover in 2012 facilitate upgrader and renovation activity?
- When will the flow on effects of the resources investment boom come through to the remainder of the economy? Can this underpin a recovery in commercial and industrial building and which states will lead the way?
- Forecasts of building activity by sector and state to June 2013.
- An overview of property market prospects for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.
Speakers:
Robert Mellor - Managing Director & Director Building
Angie Zigomanis - Senior Manager, Building & Construction Forecasting
Dr Frank Gelber - Chief Economist