||Tuesday, 7 March 2017
||Stamford Plaza Hotel
||Thursday, 9 March 2017
||Wednesday, 15 March 2017
||Park Hyatt Hotel
||Thursday, 16 March 2017
||Tuesday, 21 March 2017
||Hyatt Regency Hotel
Transition to a strong post-mining boom economy is just beginning. It will be slow and difficult.
Don’t underestimate the magnitude of the forces shaping Australia’s future.
– Mining investment still has further to fall (negative impact partly offset by strong production).
– ‘Transition’ involves structural change and substantial rebuilding of industry.
Other cycles and economic drivers are a mixed bag:
- Residential cycles are running their course – building will fall.
- Infrastructure spending is beginning a phase of growth after years of decline.
- Businesses aren’t ready to invest yet. Low interest rates won’t help. Weak demand, weak profits and excess capacity will delay new investment until it makes sense for them to invest. That will take time.
- It’s unlikely that Brexit, a Trump presidency or China will upset the applecart. Our primary problems are domestic.
- Nor will the impending phase of slowly rising interest rates worldwide change our lives.
This phase of weakness will run its course before non-mining industries emerge from the ashes of the mining boom.
We face years of slow growth before non-mining business investment emerges as a primary growth driver.
We know the shape of recovery. Improved competitiveness from the lower dollar will boost dollar-exposed industries. They will be the first to invest, stimulating services and broadening through non-mining industries.
Structural change will drive growth, employment & population by industry and region. That has already begun.
The outcome, by industry & by region, will depend on our ability to rebuild non-mining industries.
Don’t expect some magical rebound in the economy. We’ll be in this slow growth limbo for years yet.
Our 106th bi-annual Business Forecasting Conferences will provide a clear picture of the economic and industry outlook. We examine economic conditions, emerging structural and cyclical shifts, policy issues, the logic of investment, regional and industry prospects, financial and business conditions and the issues businesses will face. These briefings held since 1964, assist decision makers to formulate business strategies and actions. Delegates receive a Chart Book and key forecasts.