Where is the market for your product heading in the next few years? Will you be ready for the next upturn? Which regions will see the fastest growth?
Over our 50-year history, we have built up a strong level of expertise and unique methodologies for forecasting.
We provide reliable and clearly explained projections for the markets, industries and economies in which our clients operate. Our Forecasting Conferences are held regularly across Australia and in New Zealand.
BIS Shrapnel’s forecast services are designed to keep you a step ahead. Forecasting swings in volume and market size for your business is critical to planning and to major capital expenditure decisions.
When forecasting your industry, we account for a host of drivers. These can include household formation, trends in consumer demand, changes on the supply side of the industry, employment and real incomes, interest rates, market research, the relative price of the product, the life cycle of your market, government policies, and so on.
The value of forecasts for your business
Most sectors in the economy are subject to very strong cyclical fluctuations in the short run, plus evolving structural trends in the long run. The short run cycle in your market responds to natural physical stock shortage or surplus, in a de-stocking and re-stocking cycle that sees the amount of output and sales being undertaken trying to adjust to match demand.
The cycle in many markets typically has four phases - upturn, boom, downturn, and bust:
- after a period of stagnation in business activity, below the long-run sustainable level of demand, stocks are low and excess demand emerges – this leads to activity levels that start to rise (upswing)
- business margins become more attractive and activity accelerates, until maximum business activity leads to industry at full capacity (boom)
- activity eventually overshoots, to a level greater than sustainable by the underlying demand, when surplus stock sees sales volumes fall and activity levels slump dramatically (downturn)
- forced sales result in a substantial moderation in demand expectations and eventually activity levels bottom below long-run desired levels (bust)
The net result is a short term cycle that greatly complicates business planning. The associated uncertainty can create sharp ripple effects on volumes (and prices) across your market, which you need to anticipate.
For the latest Forecasting releases, click here.