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BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
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Latest analysis from Australia

  • NEW REPORT | Apr 18 2017
    This report assesses the market and prospects for commercial property in major suburban office markets of North Sydney, Crows Nest and St Leonards, Chatswood, Parramatta and Macquarie Park over the...
    Research Briefings | Apr 17 2017
    There is a broad political consensus that Australia needs to return its government budget to surplus, with the current Liberal-Nationals Coalition government pledging to achieve this by fiscal year...
    NEW REPORT | Apr 12 2017
    This is BIS Oxford Economics' 16th study on the non-CBD office markets of Melbourne. Developed as a companion report to the Melbourne Commercial Property study on the metropolitan market and the CBD,...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Apr 12 2017
    High frequency data suggest that the economy has built on the recovery in output in Q4 2016. Business confidence surveys remain in expansionary territory and the trade surplus climbed back in February...
    NEW REPORT | Apr 06 2017
    This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Brisbane CBD, the Near City and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, premium, A and B...
    NEW REPORT | Apr 04 2017
    This report provides forecasts (and methodology) for the CBD and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancies, CBD prime and B grade rents, yields and...
  • NEW REPORT | Apr 04 2017
    This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Melbourne CBD and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, prime and secondary rents, yields...
    Data Insights | Apr 04 2017
    ​The RBA met expectations and held the cash rate at 1.5% at its April meeting. The Board highlighted the building of momentum in the global economy and a weak AUD as key supports for the outlook. They...
    NEW REPORT | Mar 31 2017
    Japan is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    NEW REPORT | Mar 31 2017
    BIS Oxford Economics' annual Road Maintenance in Australia report is the most reliable and comprehensive source of data and forecasts for organisations operating in the road maintenance industry. This...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Mar 14 2017
    ​After a surprise fall in Q3, the economy bounced back in Q4 2016, growing 1.1% q/q. Consumer spending and government demand were the main drivers of growth, while net exports also contributed....
    Data Insights | Mar 07 2017
    As widely expected, the RBA held the cash rate at 1.5% at its March meeting. The Board see the Australian economy continuing to evolve as expected, with strengthening global conditions and a...
  • Data Insights | Mar 02 2017
    After a record AU$3.3bn surplus in December the trade balance fell back to $1.3bn in January. Driving the decline was strong growth in imports ( 4.7% m/m), with all major categories increasing,...
    Data Insights | Mar 01 2017
    Australia's economy shook off the contraction in output in Q3 2016, growing 1.1% on the quarter in the last three months of 2016, to take growth for 2016 as a whole to 2.4%. The economy was...
    NEW REPORT | Feb 13 2017
    This study provides a detailed coverage of trends, issues and outlook for Australia’s road construction sector. Unique historical time series data and forecasts of road construction work are provided...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Feb 10 2017
    The recent data confirm our view that Australia's economy has returned to growth, with the manufacturing and services PMIs continuing to show expansion in January. We see the economy gently...
    Data Insights | Feb 07 2017
    As expected the RBA held the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board highlighted that the decline in GDP in Q3 was largely due to one-off factors, and they expect the economy to accelerate to 3% growth pa over...
    Data Insights | Feb 02 2017
    Rising coal and iron prices helped goods exports soar in December, pushing the trade balance to AU$3.5bn - its highest monthly surplus on record. After a 10% m/m increase in November, goods exports...
  • Research Briefings | Jan 30 2017
    The sharp correction in commodity prices since 2014 has hit the mining sector in Australia hard, with investment and employment tumbling. Although this has dampened growth, the economy has held up...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jan 16 2017
    After the surprise contraction in GDP in Q3, Australia's economy has returned to growth, with the PMI indices for services and manufacturing both suggesting a strong pace of expansion in the last...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Dec 15 2016
    Although we expected a slowdown the Q3 GDP data surprised on the downside, with output falling 0.5% on the quarter. A partial correction in public expenditure, which surged in Q2, and a fall in...
    Data Insights | Dec 08 2016
    A rebound in imports, which rose to AU$29.2bn, pushed the trade balance down to AU$1.5bn in October. Goods and services imports grew strongly, by 2.4% and 2.1% m/m respectively. Within merchandise...
    Data Insights | Dec 07 2016
    GDP growth come in well below expectations, with a 0.5% contraction in Q3. Investment, government consumption and net exports all subtracted from growth in the quarter. In contrast, growth in...
    Data Insights | Dec 06 2016
    As expected the RBA held the cast rate at 1.5%. The monetary policy statement highlighted the recent softening of the economy. But this has broadly been in line with expectations, and the economy is...
  • Country Economic Forecasts | Nov 18 2016
    The most recent activity data support our view that the economy went through a soft patch in Q3, with real retail turnover falling 0.1% q/q and the PMI surveys showing modest declines in August and...
    Data Insights | Nov 03 2016
    Exports leapt up 2% m/m in September, driving the trade deficit down to AU$1.2bn, its lowest level since 2014. Non-rural good exports reported another strong month, rising 3.8% after a 2.9% increase...
    Data Insights | Nov 01 2016
    The RBA surprised us by holding the overnight cash rate at 1.5% for the third meeting in a row. The policy statement indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold in the near term, despite the...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Oct 18 2016
    ​The recent activity indicators suggest that the economy has slowed a little in recent months, with the manufacturing and services PMIs both in contractionary territory in September (49.8 and 48.9...
    Research Briefings | Oct 18 2016
    Plentiful natural resources and commodity-hungry China have buoyed Australia's economy over the last 15 years. Moving into the next decade this channel will offer less to economic growth, but...
    Data Insights | Oct 06 2016
    The trade deficit narrowed further in August, to AU$2bn, with exports broadly flat and imports falling 0.3% m/m. The export picture is more positive than the headline suggested, with non-rural goods...
  • Data Insights | Oct 04 2016
    RBA hold rates at 1.5% for the second meeting in a row, but we still expect a 25bps cut in November. Monthly inflation indicators suggest that inflation is around 1%, and recent labour market data...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Sep 19 2016
    Q2 GDP growth was stronger than expected, at 0.5% q/q. The government provided an unexpected boost, with current spending and investment boosting growth by 0.3pp and 0.7pp respectively. In contrast...
    Data Insights | Sep 08 2016
    Trade deficit narrowed in July, to AU$2.41bn, with exports growing 2.8% and imports falling 0.4% m/m. Although the headline figure was good non-rural exports declined by -1.7%, the second month of...
    Data Insights | Sep 07 2016
    GDP surprised on the upside, rising 0.5% q/q in Q2 (3.3% y/y) led by a sharp rise in government consumption and investment. We now expect the economy to grow by around 3% this year and 2.8% in...
    Data Insights | Sep 06 2016
    <  RBA hold rates but signal cut later this year on the back of subdued inflationary pressures and strengthening in the AUD <  Monthly indicators suggest inflation is hovering...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Aug 19 2016
    ​Growth in real activity continues to be robust, with the manufacturing and services PMIs both reporting a healthy expansion in July. Amid concerns about inflation expectations anchoring below target,...

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Apr 28 2017
    ​Global forces look set to limit rises in long-end bond yields even for markets where there may be local reflationary impulses. The link between policy rates and long-end yields has structurally...
    Viewpoints | Apr 26 2017
    ​The Asian export recovery is reasonably broad-based, fuelled not just by demand from China and the rest of Asia but also from Europe, the major emerging markets and, to some extent, the...
    Research Briefings | Apr 24 2017
    ​In this second note in our series on emerging market (EM) currencies, we find that improved monetary frameworks and greater financial stability among EMs have fundamentally changed the nature of...
    Research Briefings | Apr 24 2017
    S&P expected to go sideways for the rest of the year with downside risksEuropean equities offer plenty of fundamental upside through end 2017For Japan, risks are skewed slightly to the downside as...
    Research Briefings | Apr 21 2017
    The positive market response to Donald Trump's election victory will not be repeated anywhere else, according to our global assessment and simulations covering 20 large economies. We see Trump fiscal...
    Viewpoints | Apr 21 2017
    ​South Africa moved to the bottom of the vulnerability rankings in April, reflecting a further downgrade of its already dismal growth outlook. The latter will also make it more difficult to attract...
  • Research Briefings | Apr 19 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for April, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. This month, we focus on reviving world trade and examine the dichotomy of ‘solid’ soft and...
    Viewpoints | Apr 11 2017
    ​The contraction in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans has raised concerns about credit conditions, the direction of business investment and the US economy. However, the downturn in C&I...
    Research Briefings | Apr 10 2017
    ​Market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations have jumped since mid-2016, but likely overstate the risk of big rises in actual inflation. The increase in market-based measures has not...
    Research Briefings | Apr 05 2017
    ​World trade has picked up in recent months, expanding at the fastest pace in six years in the first quarter, with the rise fairly evenly split between advanced and emerging markets. Stronger activity...
    Viewpoints | Apr 05 2017
    ​The minutes from the March 14-15 FOMC meeting illustrate that Fed officials are already considering different strategies surrounding the shrinking of the balance sheet. If economic conditions...
    Research Briefings | Apr 04 2017
    Key features of the current Fed tightening cycle stand in stark contrast to historical experience​​ - as detailed in this chart pack, which accompanies our latest briefings on the potential fall-out...
  • Research Briefings | Apr 04 2017
    ​While the implications of prospective Fed rate hikes are most likely benign, key features of the current tightening cycle stand in stark contrast to historical experience—and could conceivably lead...
    Viewpoints | Apr 04 2017
    ​South African government bonds (SAGBs) are oversold after the recent sell-off. A downgrade was largely priced in as foreign investor commitment to SAGBs hasn’t been heavy. The “fallen angels” are...
    Research Briefings | Mar 28 2017
    The UK serving its divorce papers on the EU tomorrow will not herald another plunge in sterling. We think the pound is significantly undervalued. It hasn’t broken below the October lows despite the...
    Research Briefings | Mar 24 2017
    An overload of expectations and rich valuations amid global reflation mean the dollar won’t benefit much from positive US surprises. Steady growth in other blocs is beginning to challenge the...
    Viewpoints | Mar 21 2017
    The latest vulnerability scorecard shows Turkey, South Africa and Malaysia as the most fragile economies, with Turkey's situation deteriorating further over the last month because of a worsening...
    EMS | Mar 21 2017
    Emerging market (EM) currencies may have entered a long cycle of strength, unless significant risks materialise. We see positive momentum; and EM currencies have historically tended to follow long...
  • Research Briefings | Mar 20 2017
    In our global macro chartbook, we summarise our take on current global themes as well as our key macro and asset views. This month, in particular, we discuss reflation as well as forces that are still...
    Viewpoints | Mar 17 2017
    Oil prices have tumbled in March as the market loses confidence in the OPEC rebalancing story. While OPEC compliance has been very high at 98%, non-OPEC cuts have been feeble and US production is set...
    Research Briefings | Mar 16 2017
    ​Could the Trump era resemble the 1980s ‘Reaganomics’ boosted world growth – but not necessarily in the ways people think – and not for emerging markets (EMs), a larger part of today’s world economy....
    Viewpoints | Mar 15 2017
    ​As widely telegraphed by Fed officials and fully anticipated by financial markets, the Fed lifted the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 0.75%-1.00%. There were no large surprises in the...
    Research Briefings | Mar 15 2017
    ​The residual risk-reward in the Trump trade is far from generous. The bar for markets to be surprised is much higher. Despite the tailwind from strong earnings and positive sentiment, S&P could...
    Viewpoints | Mar 10 2017
    Explicit Fed speak and a strong February employment report confirm the FOMC will lift short-term interest rates by 25 basis point at the upcoming March 14-15 FOMC policy meeting. The key question is...
  • Viewpoints | Mar 03 2017
    Manufacturing activity accelerated dramatically toward the end of last year across many large economies, confirming signals from survey-based indicators. Inventory patterns and a supportive policy...
    Viewpoints | Feb 27 2017
    In most areas of the scorecard Turkey continues to score very poorly. Its external financial situation remains weak, including a marked fall in its foreign exchange reserves in H2 2016, while there...
    Research Briefings | Feb 23 2017
    Finding value in emerging market (EM) currencies has been complicated by the election of President Trump and the resulting shake up of global financial markets. We develop some metrics to compare...
    Viewpoints | Feb 22 2017
    The hawkish tone of the minutes of the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting echoed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony. The minutes make it clear that Fed officials are...
    Research Briefings | Feb 17 2017
    In our global macro chartbook, we summarise our take on current global themes as well as our key macro and asset views. This month, in particular, we explore the implications of upcoming elections in...
    Research Briefings | Feb 17 2017
    The prospect of aggressive US tariffs against China and Mexico remain a concern, and the economic impacts will ripple far beyond the targeted countriesincluding potentially the US itself. We examine...
  • Research Briefings | Feb 16 2017
    Without a new productivity miracle it is hard to see global growth improving much from its modest pace: we expect world growth at 2.6% p.a. in 2016-25, a shade lower than in 2006-15. Stronger growth...
    Viewpoints | Feb 14 2017
    Chair Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony was mildly hawkish, but still points to gradual rate hikes this year. We maintain our call that the Fed tightens in June, but see rising risk...
    Research Briefings | Feb 14 2017
    ​The Trump administration has wasted no time in drafting a multitude of executive orders and memorandums shaping the economic landscape. However, major policy changes will require support from...
    Viewpoints | Feb 13 2017
    With Republicans in charge of the White House and Senate, Fed Governor Tarullo's resignation from the FOMC board was anticipated. There are two large implications. First, President Trump can fill...
    Research Briefings | Feb 13 2017
    Anyone hoping that more populist victories around the world will spark further Trump-like rallies will likely be disappointed. The US President wooed markets with promises of fiscal largesse, which...
    Viewpoints | Feb 10 2017
    The latest escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine does not seem to have deterred President Trumps desire to normalise relations with Russia. But a bi-partisan consensus is emerging in the US...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.