Please Wait

Economics

BIS Shrapnel compiles detailed research and forecasts for the Australian economy. Over the last 50 years BIS Shrapnel has earned an outstanding reputation for picking the major shifts and turning points in the economy.

Economic Outlook

Report Published: July 2016

Price:

Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220

Don’t be misled by a strengthening economy. It’s a false dawn.

Let’s not get carried away by the strength of the latest National Accounts. March quarter GDP grew by 1.1 per cent, taking growth through the year to 3.1 per cent. Much of that was due to gas projects coming on stream. That strength won’t be sustained. Employment has strengthened ahead of output. But that now suggests a slowing of employment growth until the economy picks up momentum.

Take out mining and the picture is much weaker.

Of the 1.1 per cent increase in GDP in the March quarter, more than half came from mining production. It contributed 1.0 per cent of the 3.1 per cent increase through-the-year to March (i.e. March 2016 quarter over March 2015 quarter). In the National Accounts, that’s reflected in the strength of exports. In the production figures, mining grew by 11 per cent. Without the 14 per cent fall in exploration, mining output would have risen by 13 per cent through-the-year. And the fall in mining equipment investment is boosting growth figures by reducing imports.

In non-mining businesses, demand is sluggish, profits are weak and investment subdued. Firms are reluctant to invest until they see certainty in demand. Recovery will be led by trade exposed industries which will eventually broaden into sectors providing inputs to the domestic tradeables sector. Recovery in business investment will require real investment in plant and equipment as well as investment in soft assets including research and development and in computer software.

In this month’s Bulletin:

  • GDP growth of 3 per cent unsustainable beyond the near term
  • Construction and investment outlook
  • Non mining business investment on a slow road to recovery
  • Fallout from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union

Forthcoming topics:

  • An update on the international economy and latest forecasts
  • Analysis of the June 2016 quarter CPI inflation
  • What’s the best measure of productivity?

BIS Shrapnel's Economic Outlook service monitors developments in the Australian economy and prospects for businesses looking 18 months ahead.

BIS Shrapnel's Economic Outlook service has been running for over 40 years and is Australia's premium source of independent economic analysis and commentary. The service includes:

  • Monthly Bulletin 
    Discusses the impact of major developments in the Australian economy on prospects for business sectors. We provide regular data, forecasts and discussion of:
    • growth in major sectors 
    • production and investment 
    • consumer demand 
    • price and wage inflation 
    • interest rates and exchange rates 
    • margins and profits by sector
  • Economic Briefing Conferences 
    Two complimentary admissions to BIS Shrapnel's half-day conferences, held twice a year, in March and September. These detailed briefings, held in most capital cities, cover Australia's economic prospects, identify key issues and actions required, and provide a comprehensive set of forecasts for the next 18 to 24 months. 
  • Subscriber Enquiry Service 
    Subscribers to Economic Outlook can also speak directly to our team of economists about specific forecasting issues affecting your business. 
  • Online Service 
    The online version of this service also gives subscribers instant access to bulletins, conference slides, latest statistics, financial data, forecasts, charts and additional press releases in a convenient electronic format (PDF, MS Excel and MS PowerPoint) through our website, www.bis.com.au.  

 

MONTHLY BULLETINS

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.

EO BULLETIN JUNE-JULY 2016 (pdf, 1.11 MB)

EO BULLETIN MAY 2016 (pdf, 834 KB)

EO BULLETIN APRIL 2016 (pdf, 776 KB)

EO BULLETIN MARCH 2016 (pdf, 727 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2016 (pdf, 1.70 MB)

EO BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2016 (pdf, 1.16 MB)

EO BULLETIN DECEMBER 2015/JANUARY 2016 (pdf, 756 KB)

EO BULLETIN NOVEMBER 2015 (pdf, 628 KB)

EO BULLETIN OCTOBER 2015 (pdf, 1.57 MB)

EO BULLETIN SEPT 2015 (pdf, 765 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK SEPT 2015 (pdf, 2.64 MB)

EO BULLETIN AUGUST 2015 (pdf, 955 KB)

WEEKLY DATA

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF files for download by online subscribers.

EXCHANGE RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.26 MB)

INTEREST RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.04 MB)

STOCK PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 5.73 MB)

COMMODITY PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 1.71 MB)

CALENDAR OF RELEASES AND EVENTS (pdf, 19 KB)

LATEST DATA AND FORECASTS

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF documents for download by online subscribers.

STATE INDICATORS UPDATED 01.07.2016 (xls, 1.04 MB)

COSTS & PRICES UPDATED 01.07.2016 (xls, 552 KB)

EXTERNAL SECTOR UPDATED 01.07.2016 (xls, 1.13 MB)

FINANCIAL INDICATORS UPDATED 01.07.2016 (xls, 1.82 MB)

BUSINESS INDICATORS UPDATED 01.07.2016 (xls, 877 KB)

ECONOMIC INDICATORS UPDATED 01.07.2016 (xls, 1.59 MB)

RECENT ARTICLES

PDF document files for download by online subscribers.

JUNE/JULY 2016 – GDP GROWTH OF 3 PER CENT UNSUSTAINABLE BEYOND THE NEAR TERM (pdf, 107 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 284 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – NON MINING BUSINESS INVESTMENT ON A SLOW ROAD TO RECOVERY (pdf, 118 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – FALLOUT FROM THE UK’S DECISION TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION (pdf, 336 KB)

MAY 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 51 KB)

MAY 2016 – INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE OUTLOOK (pdf, 134 KB)

MAY 2016_INFLATION OUTLOOK (pdf, 112 KB)

MAY 2016_BUDGET WRAP (pdf, 215 KB)

APRIL 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 51 KB)

APRIL 2016 – TOURISM CONTRIBUTION TO GDP AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 142 KB)

APRIL 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 246 KB)

MARCH 2016 – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW (pdf, 128 KB)

MARCH 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 70 KB)

MARCH 2016 – CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 67 KB)

MARCH 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR INDUSTRY OUTPUT, PROFITS AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 79 KB)

FEB 2016 – WHY AUSTRALIA WON’T SLIP INTO A RECESSION? (pdf, 40 KB)

FEB 2016 – INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY – CURRENT STATE OF PLAY AND OUTLOOK (pdf, 69 KB)

FEB 2016 – COMMODITY PRICES SLUMP AMID THE TURMOIL – BUT SLOW AND MIXED RECOVERY EXPECTED (pdf, 71 KB)

FEB 2016 – HOUSEHOLD SPENDING UNDERPINNING GROWTH – RETAIL SALES, MOTOR VEHICLES AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 171 KB)

FEB 2016 – PROSPECTS FOR INFLATION (pdf, 43 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - UNBALANCED GROWTH AWAITS NON-MINING INVESTMENT RECOVERY (pdf, 91 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL INCOME, PROFITS AND OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (pdf, 93 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 89 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CYCLE NEARING ITS PEAK? (pdf, 115 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - RECENT TRENDS IN PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT BY ASSET TYPE (pdf, 37 KB)

NOV 2015 – IS THE ECONOMY GETTING ANY BETTER? (pdf, 55 KB)

NOV 2015 – HOW SUSTAINABLE IS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH? (pdf, 64 KB)

NOV 2015 – ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (pdf, 121 KB)

OCT 2015 – NON-MINING BUSINESSES AREN’T READY TO INVEST YET (pdf, 55 KB)

OCT 2015 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 157 KB)

SEPT 2015 – MINING PROFITS COLLAPSING BUT NON-MINING PROFIT GROWTH PROMISING (pdf, 87 KB)

SEPT 2015 – INVESTMENT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FALLING OVER NEXT FEW YEARS (pdf, 156 KB)

AUG 2015 – CURRENT STRENGTH IN EMPLOYMENT UNLIKELY TO BE SUSTAINABLE (pdf, 322 KB)

CONFERENCE CENTRE

Microsoft Powerpoint, Excel and Adobe PDF document files for download by online subscribers.

EO BULLETIN MARCH 2016 (pdf, 727 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2016 (pdf, 1.70 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2016 - PART 1 (ppt, 1.03 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2016 - PART 2 (ppt, 1.33 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2016 - ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (ppt, 1.74 MB)