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Economics

BIS Oxford Economics compiles detailed research and forecasts for the Australian economy. Over the last 50+ years BIS Oxford Economics has earned an outstanding reputation for picking the major shifts and turning points in the economy.

Economic Outlook

Report Published: April 2017

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Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220

The full impact of Cyclone Debbie will be seen in the June quarter data. Naturally, the torrential rains, flooding and power outages associated with the cyclone will put a dent in rural goods and coal exports, particularly coking coal exports out of Queensland. Fruit and vegetable prices will increase due to a shortage of supply with the Queensland Farmers’ Federation estimating that the cyclone caused $100 million of damage to crops. However, the price rises will be temporary and they will reverse once better cropping conditions return. Overall, we think the impact of the cyclone will be contained. It will certainly not be as devastating to the economy as the 2011 Cyclone Yasi, which took out 20 million tonnes of coking coal production due to flooding and caused $300 million of damage to agriculture production including destroying 85% of Australia’s banana crop.

Meanwhile, the lack of homework done by the Queensland and the Commonwealth Governments in approving three large LNG processing facilities in Gladstone (to come onstream within a year of each other) is now coming home to roost. The newly constructed LNG export terminals are struggling to fulfil their export orders. However, by locking themselves into supply contracts with their overseas customers, they have no option but to divert gas from the domestic market to their international market in order to meet export demand. This is creating production shortfalls and supply constraints in the domestic market underwriting higher prices for Australian consumers of gas, both at the wholesale and retail level.

Manufacturing will suffer the largest impacts. Some manufacturers have reported being offered contracts at $20/GJ or more by local suppliers – more than double current (and projected) export prices. Not only will there be a serious loss of output and jobs, but potential investments will not proceed. We estimate that manufacturing output will fall by at least 10% due to high gas (and electricity) prices. The key in all of this is that even if gas and electricity prices are eventually resolved, it is important to remember that once domestic manufacturing capacity shuts down or is moved offshore, it is unlikely that it will return home or be re-started. Hence, the drop in manufacturing output could be permanent.

Topics in this month’s Bulletin:

  • State of play
  • High energy prices will decimate manufacturing
  • Outlook for states

Forthcoming topics

  • Tourism contribution to GDP, retail sales and other sectors
  • Budget wrap, debt by state, and infrastructure spending
  • An Analysis of March quarter CPI and oil prices
  • Leading indicators of non-mining business investment
  • Short and long term dynamics of the motor vehicle and fuel markets 

BIS Oxford Economics' Economic Outlook service monitors developments in the Australian economy and prospects for businesses looking 18 months ahead.

BIS Oxford Economics' Economic Outlook service has been running for over 40 years and is Australia's premium source of independent economic analysis and commentary. The service includes:

  • Monthly Bulletin 
    Discusses the impact of major developments in the Australian economy on prospects for business sectors. We provide regular data, forecasts and discussion of:
    • growth in major sectors 
    • production and investment 
    • consumer demand 
    • price and wage inflation 
    • interest rates and exchange rates 
    • margins and profits by sector
  • Economic Briefing Conferences 
    Two complimentary admissions to BIS Oxford Economics' half-day conferences, held twice a year, in March and September. These detailed briefings, held in most capital cities, cover Australia's economic prospects, identify key issues and actions required, and provide a comprehensive set of forecasts for the next 18 to 24 months. 
  • Subscriber Enquiry Service 
    Subscribers to Economic Outlook can also speak directly to our team of economists about specific forecasting issues affecting your business. 
  • Online Service 
    The online version of this service also gives subscribers instant access to bulletins, conference slides, latest statistics, financial data, forecasts, charts and additional press releases in a convenient electronic format (PDF, MS Excel and MS PowerPoint) through our website, www.bisoxfordeconomics.com.au.  

 

MONTHLY BULLETINS

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.

EO BULLETIN APRIL 2017 (pdf, 876 KB)

EO BULLETIN MARCH 2017 (pdf, 965 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2017 (pdf, 1.57 MB)

EO BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2017 (pdf, 1.35 MB)

EO BULLETIN DECEMBER 2016/JANUARY 2017 (pdf, 1.16 MB)

EO BULLETIN NOVEMBER 2016 (pdf, 663 KB)

EO BULLETIN OCTOBER 2016 (pdf, 684 KB)

EO BULLETIN SEPT 2016 (pdf, 758 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK SEPT 2016 (pdf, 1.80 MB)

EO BULLETIN AUGUST 2016 (pdf, 1.53 MB)

EO BULLETIN JUNE-JULY 2016 (pdf, 1.11 MB)

EO BULLETIN MAY 2016 (pdf, 834 KB)

WEEKLY DATA

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF files for download by online subscribers.

EXCHANGE RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.36 MB)

INTEREST RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.14 MB)

STOCK PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 5.79 MB)

COMMODITY PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 1.91 MB)

CALENDAR OF RELEASES AND EVENTS (pdf, 19 KB)

LATEST DATA AND FORECASTS

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF documents for download by online subscribers.

STATE INDICATORS UPDATED 27.04.2017 (xls, 1003 KB)

COSTS & PRICES UPDATED 27.04.2017 (xls, 536 KB)

EXTERNAL SECTOR UPDATED 27.04.2017 (xls, 1.07 MB)

FINANCIAL INDICATORS UPDATED 27.04.2017 (xls, 1.77 MB)

BUSINESS INDICATORS UPDATED 27.04.2017 (xls, 803 KB)

ECONOMIC INDICATORS UPDATED 27.04.2017 (xls, 1.60 MB)

RECENT ARTICLES

PDF document files for download by online subscribers.

APRIL 2017 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 111 KB)

APRIL 2017 – HIGH ENERGY PRICES WILL DECIMATE MANUFACTURING (pdf, 197 KB)

APRIL 2017 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 225 KB)

MARCH 2017 – GROWTH WILL STAY SOFT FOR SOME YEARS YET (pdf, 213 KB)

MARCH 2017 – TRUMPONOMICS. A 'TRIAL AND ERROR' PRESIDENCY IMPOSING GLOBAL RISK (pdf, 156 KB)

MARCH 2017 – INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK.PDF (pdf, 136 KB)

MARCH 2017 – PROFITS REBOUND IN DECEMBER QUARTER, BUT STRENGTH IS UNSUSTAINABLE (pdf, 251 KB)

FEB 2017 – LATEST DATA CONFIRMING DECEMBER QUARTER REBOUND IN ECONOMIC GROWTH (pdf, 575 KB)

FEB 2017 – UNDERLYING INFLATION NEAR ITS LOW POINT, BUT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE OVER NEXT 2 YEARS (pdf, 69 KB)

FEB 2017 – SEA CHANGE IN DRIVERS OF INVESTMENT RETURNS (pdf, 134 KB)

FEB 2017 – NET EXPORTS BOOSTING GDP, WHILE DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (pdf, 319 KB)

DEC 2016/ JAN 2017 – ECONOMY SLIPS IN THE DECEMBER QUARTER BUT NO CHANCE OF RECESSION (pdf, 99 KB)

DEC 2016/JAN 2017 – RISING US INTEREST RATES TO IMPROVE AUSTRALIAN COMPETITIVENESS (pdf, 45 KB)

DEC 2016/JAN 2017 – STATE OF PLAY - JOBS AND RETAIL SPENDING IMPROVE, MOTOR VEHICLE SALES WEAKENING (pdf, 36 KB)

DEC 2016/JAN 2017 – INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION TO DECLINE NEXT 2 YEARS, BUT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SECTORS (pdf, 129 KB)

DEC 2016/JAN 2017 – PROFITS ANALYSIS AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK TO 2017/18 (pdf, 88 KB)

NOV 2016 – TRUMP PRESIDENCY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AUSTRALIA (pdf, 53 KB)

NOV 2016 – RETAIL TRADE ANALYSIS (pdf, 78 KB)

NOV 2016 – EDUCATION SERVICES EXPORTS (pdf, 40 KB)

NOV 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (pdf, 172 KB)

OCT 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 52 KB)

OCT 2016 – INFLATION RISES BUT REMAINS LOW. IS DEFLATION A RISK? (pdf, 33 KB)

OCT 2016 – COMMODITY PRICES ARE RECOVERING – SUSTAINABLE RALLY OR A FALSE DAWN? (pdf, 71 KB)

OCT 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 201 KB)

SEPT 2016 – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – PRIVATE DEMAND IS STILL SUFFERING FROM POST GFC WEAKNESS. (pdf, 124 KB)

SEPT 2016 – DETAILED GDP, INCOME, EXPENDITURE AND INVESTMENT FORECASTS (pdf, 118 KB)

SEPT 2016 – PROFITS AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS; CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 272 KB)

SEPT 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 131 KB)

SEPT 2016 – GROWING PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT MEANS CHANGES TO PRODUCTIVITY MEASURE.PDF (pdf, 190 KB)

AUG 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 450 KB)

AUG 2016 – WITH PRICE AND WAGE INFLATION LOW, WILL THE RBA CUT RATES AGAIN? (pdf, 436 KB)

AUG 2016 – AN UPDATE ON THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY (pdf, 813 KB)

AUG 2016 – IMPACTS OF THE CAR MANUFACTURING SHUTDOWN (pdf, 572 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – GDP GROWTH OF 3 PER CENT UNSUSTAINABLE BEYOND THE NEAR TERM (pdf, 107 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 284 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – NON MINING BUSINESS INVESTMENT ON A SLOW ROAD TO RECOVERY (pdf, 118 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2016 – FALLOUT FROM THE UK’S DECISION TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION (pdf, 336 KB)

MAY 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 51 KB)

MAY 2016 – INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE OUTLOOK (pdf, 134 KB)

MAY 2016 – INFLATION OUTLOOK (pdf, 112 KB)

MAY 2016 – BUDGET WRAP (pdf, 215 KB)

CONFERENCE CENTRE

Microsoft Powerpoint, Excel and Adobe PDF document files for download by online subscribers.

EO BULLETIN MARCH 2017 (pdf, 965 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2017 (pdf, 1.57 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2017 – OVERVIEW (ppt, 930 KB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2017 – GLOBAL, COMMODITIES & TRADE OUTLOOK (ppt, 2.93 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2017 – ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (ppt, 1.03 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2017 – PROFITS, INVESTMENT, STATES (ppt, 976 KB)