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Economics

BIS Shrapnel compiles detailed research and forecasts for the Australian economy. Over the last 50 years BIS Shrapnel has earned an outstanding reputation for picking the major shifts and turning points in the economy.

Economic Outlook

Report Published: April 2016

Price:

Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220

Pendulum swinging from mining to non-mining industries, regions and states

The decade-long mining boom drove a boom cycle in mining investment and a structural change towards industries servicing high levels of mining investment. It drove abnormal growth in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. On the other hand, the associated rise in the dollar had a negative impact on non-mining industries. In particular, the dollar-exposed industries and regions languished or went into recession. It was a long and difficult time for non-mining sectors, which were subjected to the additional shock of the global financial crisis. Much of the growth of the mining regions was at the expense of the others. Accordingly, it’s not now a case of growth returning to previous norms, i.e., a cyclical recovery in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory after the current shock. Last decade’s change was more than cyclical - it was structural. It can’t be used as a benchmark for the future. The next decade will also experience a structural change, but in the opposite direction.

As structural change progresses, the next decade will look a lot more like the decade before the mining boom than the decade of the mining boom. New South Wales and Victoria are already strengthening. Interestingly, Tasmania should benefit from recovery in tourism, education and agriculture. The challenge for Brisbane and Perth is to redeploy the capabilities built up to service the mining boom into other activities. If they can’t, this will be a long and hard road for them.

Given that recovery of non-mining will start in the dollar-exposed sectors, the higher the dollar the slower the recovery. We can live with US78cents. But a sustained move above 80c would be a concern. The dollar is competitive in a broad range of US58-70cents. Our modelling - based on likely commodity prices and interest rate differentials - suggests a level around US72c. And that’s where we think we’ll end up.

 In this month’s Bulletin:

  • State of play
  • Tourism contribution to GDP and employment
  • Outlook for states

Forthcoming topics:

  • Budget wrap
  • Analysis of wages and prices
  • How the fall in the dollar is impacting on imports?

BIS Shrapnel's Economic Outlook service monitors developments in the Australian economy and prospects for businesses looking 18 months ahead.

BIS Shrapnel's Economic Outlook service has been running for over 40 years and is Australia's premium source of independent economic analysis and commentary. The service includes:

  • Monthly Bulletin 
    Discusses the impact of major developments in the Australian economy on prospects for business sectors. We provide regular data, forecasts and discussion of:
    • growth in major sectors 
    • production and investment 
    • consumer demand 
    • price and wage inflation 
    • interest rates and exchange rates 
    • margins and profits by sector
  • Economic Briefing Conferences 
    Two complimentary admissions to BIS Shrapnel's half-day conferences, held twice a year, in March and September. These detailed briefings, held in most capital cities, cover Australia's economic prospects, identify key issues and actions required, and provide a comprehensive set of forecasts for the next 18 to 24 months. 
  • Subscriber Enquiry Service 
    Subscribers to Economic Outlook can also speak directly to our team of economists about specific forecasting issues affecting your business. 
  • Online Service 
    The online version of this service also gives subscribers instant access to bulletins, conference slides, latest statistics, financial data, forecasts, charts and additional press releases in a convenient electronic format (PDF, MS Excel and MS PowerPoint) through our website, www.bis.com.au.  

 

MONTHLY BULLETINS

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.

EO BULLETIN APRIL 2016 (pdf, 776 KB)

EO BULLETIN MARCH 2016 (pdf, 727 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2016 (pdf, 1.70 MB)

EO BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2016 (pdf, 1.16 MB)

EO BULLETIN DECEMBER 2015/JANUARY 2016 (pdf, 756 KB)

EO BULLETIN NOVEMBER 2015 (pdf, 628 KB)

EO BULLETIN OCTOBER 2015 (pdf, 1.57 MB)

EO BULLETIN SEPT 2015 (pdf, 765 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK SEPT 2015 (pdf, 2.64 MB)

EO BULLETIN AUGUST 2015 (pdf, 955 KB)

EO BULLETIN JUNE-JULY 2015 (pdf, 788 KB)

EO BULLETIN MAY 2015 (pdf, 714 KB)

WEEKLY DATA

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF files for download by online subscribers.

EXCHANGE RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.24 MB)

INTEREST RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.24 MB)

STOCK PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 5.72 MB)

COMMODITY PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 1.69 MB)

CALENDAR OF RELEASES AND EVENTS (pdf, 19 KB)

LATEST DATA AND FORECASTS

Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF documents for download by online subscribers.

STATE INDICATORS UPDATED 27.05.2016 (xls, 1.04 MB)

COSTS & PRICES UPDATED 27.05.2016 (xls, 611 KB)

EXTERNAL SECTOR UPDATED 27.05.2016 (xls, 1.12 MB)

FINANCIAL INDICATORS UPDATED 27.05.2016 (xls, 1.82 MB)

BUSINESS INDICATORS UPDATED 27.05.2016 (xls, 874 KB)

ECONOMIC INDICATORS UPDATED 27.05.2016 (xls, 1.59 MB)

RECENT ARTICLES

PDF document files for download by online subscribers.

MAY 2015 – WE NEED A MUCH LOWER DOLLAR FOR A COMPETITIVE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY (pdf, 64 KB)

MAY 2015 – R&D CAN FOSTER STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS (pdf, 54 KB)

MAY 2015 – BUDGET WRAP (pdf, 61 KB)

MAY 2015 – INFLATION CONTAINED DESPITE FALL IN THE DOLLAR (pdf, 32 KB)

APRIL 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 51 KB)

APRIL 2016 – TOURISM CONTRIBUTION TO GDP AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 142 KB)

APRIL 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 246 KB)

MARCH 2016 – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW (pdf, 128 KB)

MARCH 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 70 KB)

MARCH 2016 – CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 67 KB)

MARCH 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR INDUSTRY OUTPUT, PROFITS AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 79 KB)

FEB 2016 – WHY AUSTRALIA WON’T SLIP INTO A RECESSION? (pdf, 40 KB)

FEB 2016 – INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY – CURRENT STATE OF PLAY AND OUTLOOK (pdf, 69 KB)

FEB 2016 – COMMODITY PRICES SLUMP AMID THE TURMOIL – BUT SLOW AND MIXED RECOVERY EXPECTED (pdf, 71 KB)

FEB 2016 – HOUSEHOLD SPENDING UNDERPINNING GROWTH – RETAIL SALES, MOTOR VEHICLES AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 171 KB)

FEB 2016 – PROSPECTS FOR INFLATION (pdf, 43 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - UNBALANCED GROWTH AWAITS NON-MINING INVESTMENT RECOVERY (pdf, 91 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL INCOME, PROFITS AND OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (pdf, 93 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 89 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CYCLE NEARING ITS PEAK? (pdf, 115 KB)

DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - RECENT TRENDS IN PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT BY ASSET TYPE (pdf, 37 KB)

NOV 2015 – IS THE ECONOMY GETTING ANY BETTER? (pdf, 55 KB)

NOV 2015 – HOW SUSTAINABLE IS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH? (pdf, 64 KB)

NOV 2015 – ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (pdf, 121 KB)

OCT 2015 – NON-MINING BUSINESSES AREN’T READY TO INVEST YET (pdf, 55 KB)

OCT 2015 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 157 KB)

SEPT 2015 – MINING PROFITS COLLAPSING BUT NON-MINING PROFIT GROWTH PROMISING (pdf, 87 KB)

SEPT 2015 – INVESTMENT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FALLING OVER NEXT FEW YEARS (pdf, 156 KB)

AUG 2015 – CURRENT STRENGTH IN EMPLOYMENT UNLIKELY TO BE SUSTAINABLE (pdf, 322 KB)

JUNE/JULY 2015 – TOURISM – THE NEXT BOOM INDUSTRY (pdf, 229 KB)

CONFERENCE CENTRE

Microsoft Powerpoint, Excel and Adobe PDF document files for download by online subscribers.

EO BULLETIN MARCH 2016 (pdf, 727 KB)

EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2016 (pdf, 1.70 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2016 - PART 1 (ppt, 1.03 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2016 - PART 2 (ppt, 1.33 MB)

EO CONFERENCE SLIDES MARCH 2016 - ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (ppt, 1.74 MB)