Report Published: September 2016
Australia’s real GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in the June 2016 quarter (seasonally adjusted), bringing the through-the-year growth (June 2016 compared to June 2015) to 3.3 per cent — the strongest outcome in four years. While the June result was slightly below market expectations of 0.6 per cent, it was still a solid number considering an already impressive 1 per cent growth in the March quarter. However, the second quarter growth was driven by public demand with very little sign of broadly based growth. Take out the stimulus from government consumption expenditure and public investment which included a 27.6 per cent spike in defence spending, real GDP would have been flat in the June quarter. Over 2015/16, GDP grew by 2.9 per cent, slightly stronger than our March Conference forecast but in line with our mid-year revision.
Where to from here?
There’s no doubt that we’ve had a good run. Unlike most other advanced economies, we managed to avoid recession in the wake of the GFC. Our last recession was in 1991, a quarter of a century ago, when we had our own financial crisis.
So, where do we go from here? Is the dream run over?
We don’t think so. Nonetheless, growth will stay soft (below trend) over the next two years as we absorb the shock of falling mining investment, as the residential cycle turns down and until non-mining growth and business investment recover. But that’s a good outcome. It could have been worse. Remember the recessions in other resource exporting countries. Considering our exposure to external and internal shocks, Australia’s uninterrupted growth over the past two and half decades has been quite remarkable. And there is minimal risk of recession over the next two years with net exports providing a floor under growth.
In this month’s Bulletin:
- Economic Overview – private demand is still suffering from post GFC weakness
- Detailed GDP, Income, Expenditure and Investment forecasts
- Profits and industry analysis; construction and investment outlook
- State of play
- Growing Part-time Employment means Changes to Productivity Measure
- Outlook for states
- Commodity price forecasts
- Interest rate and exchange rate outlook
BIS Shrapnel's Economic Outlook service monitors developments in the Australian economy and prospects for businesses looking 18 months ahead.
BIS Shrapnel's Economic Outlook service has been running for over 40 years and is Australia's premium source of independent economic analysis and commentary. The service includes:
- Monthly Bulletin
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- production and investment
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- price and wage inflation
- interest rates and exchange rates
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- Economic Briefing Conferences
Two complimentary admissions to BIS Shrapnel's half-day conferences, held twice a year, in March and September. These detailed briefings, held in most capital cities, cover Australia's economic prospects, identify key issues and actions required, and provide a comprehensive set of forecasts for the next 18 to 24 months.
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The online version of this service also gives subscribers instant access to bulletins, conference slides, latest statistics, financial data, forecasts, charts and additional press releases in a convenient electronic format (PDF, MS Excel and MS PowerPoint) through our website, www.bis.com.au.
Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.
EO BULLETIN SEPT 2016 (pdf, 758 KB)
EO CHARTBOOK SEPT 2016 (pdf, 1.80 MB)
EO BULLETIN AUGUST 2016 (pdf, 1.53 MB)
EO BULLETIN JUNE-JULY 2016 (pdf, 1.11 MB)
EO BULLETIN MAY 2016 (pdf, 834 KB)
EO BULLETIN APRIL 2016 (pdf, 776 KB)
EO BULLETIN MARCH 2016 (pdf, 727 KB)
EO CHARTBOOK MARCH 2016 (pdf, 1.70 MB)
EO BULLETIN FEBRUARY 2016 (pdf, 1.16 MB)
EO BULLETIN DECEMBER 2015/JANUARY 2016 (pdf, 756 KB)
EO BULLETIN NOVEMBER 2015 (pdf, 628 KB)
EO BULLETIN OCTOBER 2015 (pdf, 1.57 MB)
Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF files for download by online subscribers.
EXCHANGE RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.26 MB)
INTEREST RATES – WEEKLY (xls, 2.27 MB)
STOCK PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 5.73 MB)
COMMODITY PRICES – WEEKLY (xls, 4.16 MB)
CALENDAR OF RELEASES AND EVENTS (pdf, 19 KB)
LATEST DATA AND FORECASTS
Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and PDF documents for download by online subscribers.
STATE INDICATORS UPDATED 15.09.2016 (xls, 1.05 MB)
COSTS & PRICES UPDATED 15.09.2016 (xls, 611 KB)
EXTERNAL SECTOR UPDATED 15.09.2016 (xls, 1.14 MB)
FINANCIAL INDICATORS UPDATED 15.09.2016 (xls, 1.83 MB)
BUSINESS INDICATORS UPDATED 15.09.2016 (xls, 874 KB)
ECONOMIC INDICATORS UPDATED 15.09.2016 (xls, 1.60 MB)
PDF document files for download by online subscribers.
SEPT 2016_ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – PRIVATE DEMAND IS STILL SUFFERING FROM POST GFC WEAKNESS. (pdf, 124 KB)
SEPT 2016 – DETAILED GDP, INCOME, EXPENDITURE AND INVESTMENT FORECASTS (pdf, 118 KB)
SEPT 2016 – PROFITS AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS; CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 272 KB)
SEPT 2016_STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 131 KB)
SEPT 2016_GROWING PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT MEANS CHANGES TO PRODUCTIVITY MEASURE.PDF (pdf, 190 KB)
AUG 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 450 KB)
AUG 2016 – WITH PRICE AND WAGE INFLATION LOW, WILL THE RBA CUT RATES AGAIN? (pdf, 436 KB)
AUG 2016 – AN UPDATE ON THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY (pdf, 813 KB)
AUG 2016 – IMPACTS OF THE CAR MANUFACTURING SHUTDOWN (pdf, 572 KB)
JUNE/JULY 2016 – GDP GROWTH OF 3 PER CENT UNSUSTAINABLE BEYOND THE NEAR TERM (pdf, 107 KB)
JUNE/JULY 2016 – CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 284 KB)
JUNE/JULY 2016 – NON MINING BUSINESS INVESTMENT ON A SLOW ROAD TO RECOVERY (pdf, 118 KB)
JUNE/JULY 2016 – FALLOUT FROM THE UK’S DECISION TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION (pdf, 336 KB)
MAY 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 51 KB)
MAY 2016 – INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE OUTLOOK (pdf, 134 KB)
MAY 2016_INFLATION OUTLOOK (pdf, 112 KB)
MAY 2016_BUDGET WRAP (pdf, 215 KB)
APRIL 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 51 KB)
APRIL 2016 – TOURISM CONTRIBUTION TO GDP AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 142 KB)
APRIL 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 246 KB)
MARCH 2016 – ECONOMIC OVERVIEW (pdf, 128 KB)
MARCH 2016 – STATE OF PLAY (pdf, 70 KB)
MARCH 2016 – CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 67 KB)
MARCH 2016 – OUTLOOK FOR INDUSTRY OUTPUT, PROFITS AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 79 KB)
FEB 2016 – WHY AUSTRALIA WON’T SLIP INTO A RECESSION? (pdf, 40 KB)
FEB 2016 – INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY – CURRENT STATE OF PLAY AND OUTLOOK (pdf, 69 KB)
FEB 2016 – COMMODITY PRICES SLUMP AMID THE TURMOIL – BUT SLOW AND MIXED RECOVERY EXPECTED (pdf, 71 KB)
FEB 2016 – HOUSEHOLD SPENDING UNDERPINNING GROWTH – RETAIL SALES, MOTOR VEHICLES AND EMPLOYMENT (pdf, 171 KB)
FEB 2016 – PROSPECTS FOR INFLATION (pdf, 43 KB)
DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - UNBALANCED GROWTH AWAITS NON-MINING INVESTMENT RECOVERY (pdf, 91 KB)
DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL INCOME, PROFITS AND OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR (pdf, 93 KB)
DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - CONSTRUCTION AND INVESTMENT OUTLOOK (pdf, 89 KB)
DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CYCLE NEARING ITS PEAK? (pdf, 115 KB)
DEC 2015/ JAN 2016 - RECENT TRENDS IN PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT BY ASSET TYPE (pdf, 37 KB)
NOV 2015 – IS THE ECONOMY GETTING ANY BETTER? (pdf, 55 KB)
NOV 2015 – HOW SUSTAINABLE IS EMPLOYMENT GROWTH? (pdf, 64 KB)
NOV 2015 – ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (pdf, 121 KB)
OCT 2015 – NON-MINING BUSINESSES AREN’T READY TO INVEST YET (pdf, 55 KB)
OCT 2015 – OUTLOOK FOR STATES (pdf, 157 KB)
Microsoft Powerpoint, Excel and Adobe PDF document files for download by online subscribers.
EO BULLETIN SEPT 2016 (pdf, 758 KB)
EO CHARTBOOK SEPT 2016 (pdf, 1.80 MB)
EO CONFERENCE SLIDES SEPT 2016 - PART 1 (ppt, 1.02 MB)
EO CONFERENCE SLIDES SEPT 2016 - PART 2 (ppt, 862 KB)
EO CONFERENCE SLIDES SEPT 2016 - ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK (ppt, 1.81 MB)