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Economics

BIS Shrapnel compiles detailed research and forecasts for the Australian economy. Over the last 50 years BIS Shrapnel has earned an outstanding reputation for picking the major shifts and turning points in the economy.

Long Term Forecasts 2015 – 2030

Report Published: February 2016

Price:

Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220

6 MONTH UPDATE REPORT NOW PUBLISHED!

Australia’s structural transition is agonisingly slow.
Managers and Investors take note. That gives us time to prepare.


The transition from mining-driven to more balanced growth won’t be gentle. It is a structural shift with significant winners and losers, by industry and by region. It has only just begun.

The dollar has fallen far enough to drive the change. But the process is agonisingly slow. Punctuated by cyclical shifts in investment, both private and government.

The bad news is that:

  • Mining investment has a lot further to fall.
  • The world economy remains weak, with growth softening in China.
  • The current surge in employment is running ahead of growth. We wonder whether it can be sustained.
  • Residential building is nearing the peak of the cycle.

The good news is that:

  • The impact of the fall in mining investment is being offset by growth in mining production and exports, albeit at much lower prices than during the boom.
  • The lower dollar is starting to boost Tourism, Education, Agriculture and even some parts of Manufacturing. There is a lot more to come.
  • Eventually, that will broaden to growth and investment in other non-mining sectors.
  • Infrastructure spending by governments will now start to recover, albeit slowly.
  • Excess capacity in non-mining sectors will delay investment until absorbed.

These are interesting times. And markets are fickle. Chinese growth is weakening. World growth remains weak. Commodity prices have collapsed. We are a on the threshold of a long phase of rising interest rates, leading to concerns about asset prices.

But, for Australia, it is straightforward. We face another two soft years until the fall in mining investment runs out of steam and the positives outweigh negative influences. Just as the mining boom came at the expense of other industries and regions, that will now be reversed. Inflation remains contained. Business demand and profits will remain tight until growth and investment build momentum. Only then will business transition from cost-cutting into growth mode. While structural change will be painful and take time, and while there remain significant challenges, Australia is heading for strong growth towards the end of the decade.

A subscription to Long Term Forecasts 2015 – 2030 report includes:

  • The main Long Term Forecasts 2015 – 2030 report
  • Update Report in February 2016, providing new commentary and forecasts
  • Access to our team of economists through to April 2016 to discuss implications of forecasts, methodologies etc.
  • Individual chapters contain detailed coverage of specific areas along with a summary table of key drivers and directions:
  • Outlook for the global economy, the Australian dollar and Australia’s external trade
  • Population and the labour market
  • Household income and consumer demand
  • Government spending Investment – public, business and private
  • Wages growth, price inflation and interest rates

Industry prospects, including the sub-components of the Manufacturing industry

Online Access:
The Long Term Forecasts 2015 – 2030 online service provides supplementary information in electronic format, including access to our website to download chapters in PDF format, and charts and tables in MS Excel from both the main report and February 2016 Update. The online service provides quarterly updates of forecasts of key variables – available after the release of the June and December quarter National Accounts releases. Online access may be shared with up to four other staff members for greater utilisation of the service.

 

DECEMBER 2015 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS QUARTERLY UPDATE – MARCH 2016

Excel document files for download by subscribers.

LTF – DECEMBER 2015 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS QTRLY UPDATE (04.04.2016) (xls, 75 KB)

UPDATE REPORT – FEBRUARY 2016

Adobe PDF and Excel document files for download by subscribers.

LONG TERM FORECASTS 2015 – 2030_UPDATE REPORT (pdf, 1015 KB)

FORECAST TABLES UPDATE – FEBRUARY 2016

Excel document files for download by subscribers.

LTF – FEBRUARY 2015 UPDATE FORECAST TABLES (09.02.2016) (xls, 75 KB)

REPORT – AUGUST 2015

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.

FULL REPORT: LONG TERM FORECASTS 2015 – 2030 (pdf, 2.93 MB)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (pdf, 147 KB)

OVERVIEW (pdf, 476 KB)

INTRODUCTION (pdf, 146 KB)

CHAPTER 1 – THE WORLD ECONOMY, EXCHANGE RATES AND TRADE (pdf, 423 KB)

CHAPTER 2 – THE LABOUR MARKET AND POPULATION TRENDS (pdf, 273 KB)

CHAPTER 3 – CONSUMER DEMAND FORECASTS (pdf, 279 KB)

CHAPTER 4 – GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND FISCAL POLICY (pdf, 290 KB)

CHAPTER 5 – INVESTMENT FORECASTS (pdf, 415 KB)

CHAPTER 6 – PRICES, WAGES AND INTEREST RATES (pdf, 291 KB)

CHAPTER 7 – INDUSTRY PROSPECTS (pdf, 343 KB)

CHAPTER 8 – OUTLOOK FOR THE MAJOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY SECTORS (pdf, 312 KB)

TABLES – AUGUST 2015

Excel document files for download by subscribers.

TABLES: LTF 2015 REPORT (xls, 1.98 MB)

CHARTS – AUGUST 2015

PowerPoint document files for download by subscribers.

CHARTS: LTF 2015 REPORT (ppt, 2.76 MB)