Economics

Long Term Forecasts 2012 – 2027

UPDATE REPORT – FEBRUARY 2013

Minerals-related investment is near its peak, all levels of government continue to scale back expenditure, and the Australian dollar remains high. Recognising the resulting weakness, the Reserve Bank is lowering interest rates to stimulate the domestic economy. This is helping support a recovery in dwelling building, which will underpin demand in other industries – eventually. At the same time, the global economy finally appears to be stabilising, but risks remain large and to the downside.

The Long Term Forecast 2012-2027 Update report dissects this outlook, and addresses, among other things, the following questions relevant to Australian businesses:

  • When should your industry expect conditions to improve?
  • How long will the current labour market softness keep wage and price inflation contained?
  • Do low interest rates and a high Australian dollar make now a good time to invest despite low demand?
  • When will interest rates start rising again, and how high will they go?
  • How will changes to government policy affect businesses?
  • What will the Australian economy look like on the other side of the minerals investment boom?
  • What are the prospects for a materially lower Australian dollar, and therefore a recovery in manufacturing and other trade-exposed industries?
  • What do long-term issues such as rising energy prices and the ageing population mean for growth and the nature of investment in the future?

These questions and more are addressed in the Long Term Forecast 2012-2027 Update report. Our independent assessment and respected forecasts of the timing, nature and strength of the next cycle, shifts in financial conditions and risks surrounding the outlook are essential inputs for annual budgeting, strategy formulation and mid to long term business planning


Read More

A subscription to Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027 Update report includes:

  • Access to the main Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027 report
  • Access to our team of economists through to April 2013 to discuss implications of forecasts, methodologies etc.

Individual chapters contain detailed coverage of specific areas along with a summary table of key drivers and directions:

  • The outlook for the global economy, the Australian dollar and Australia’s external trade
  • Population and the labour market
  • Household income and consumer demand
  • Government spending
  • Investment – public, business and private
  • Wages growth, price inflation and interest rates
  • Industry prospects, including the sub-components of the Manufacturing industry


Online Access:

Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027 Update report comes with supplementary information in electronic format, including online access to our website to download chapters in PDF format, and charts and tables in MS Excel from both the main report and February 2013 Update. The online service provides quarterly updates of forecasts of key variables – available after the release of the June and December quarter National Accounts releases. Online access may be shared with up to four other staff members for greater utilisation of the service.

Price:


Contact:

Joy Xenita

PH: +61 2 8458 4220


National Accounts Quarterly Update – DEC 2012

Excel document files for download by subscribers.
Excel document files for download by subscribers.
  • LTF – Dec 2012 National Accounts Qtrly Update (27.03.2013) (xls, 116kb)

Update Report – February 2013

Adobe PDF and Excel document files for download by subscribers.
Adobe PDF and Excel document files for download by subscribers.
  • Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027_Update Report (pdf, 467kb)
  • Long Term Forecasts 2012_Update_Tables (xls, 128kb)
  • Long Term Forecasts 2012_Update Powerpoint (ppt, 671kb)

Report – JULY 2012

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.
Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.
  • Full Report: Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027 (pdf, 1493kb)
  • Executive Summary (pdf, 44kb)
  • Overview (pdf, 140kb)
  • Introduction (pdf, 29kb)
  • Chapter 1 – The World Economy and Trade (pdf, 309kb)
  • Chapter 2 – The Labour Market and Population Trends (pdf, 112kb)
  • Chapter 3 – Consumer Demand Forecasts (pdf, 120kb)
  • Chapter 4 – Government Spending and Fiscal Policy (pdf, 153kb)
  • Chapter 5 – Investment Forecasts (pdf, 115kb)
  • Chapter 6 – Prices, Wages and Interest Rates (pdf, 99kb)
  • Chapter 7 – Industry Prospects (pdf, 215kb)
  • Chapter 8 – Outlook for the Major Manufacturing Industry Sectors (pdf, 130kb)