Economics

Long Term Forecasts 2008-2023

BIS Shrapnel's Long Term Forecasts report provides a detailed outlook for the Australian economy, with a fifteen year forecast horizon.
 
Tight credit conditions dampening demand, but mining and infrastructure booms will insulate economy against a sharp slowdown. External sector and dwelling investment primed to take over as key growth drivers as capacity constraints ease, but a sharp drop in commodity prices remains a major risk to inflation. What are the implications for business planning?

Long Term Forecasts is designed as a tool to aid medium to long term budgeting and planning. Along with detailed numerical forecasts, the report provides clear insight into what is happening in the economy, where it is headed and what developments are likely to influence its prospects.


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For each economic and business indicator, annual forecasts are given for the first five years, followed by two five year average forecasts. The annual forecasts are intended to capture the timing of the business cycle. The long-term forecasts indicate the underlying fundamental trends of each industry and economic indicator.

A subscription to Long Term Forecasts 2008-2023 will include:

  • The main report, to be published August 2008
  • A separately bound Overview report, providing a summary of the forecasts and drawing out the main implications for strategic planning
  • An Update report, published in February 2009
  • Access to our team of economists through to April 2009 to discuss implications of forecasts, methodologies etc.

Individual chapters contain detailed coverage of specific areas including:

  • The outlook for economic growth
  • Wages growth, price inflation and interest rates
  • The labour market
  • Household income and consumer demand
  • Industry sector prospects
  • Investment- public, business and private
  • External trade, balance of payments and exchange rates

 

Special topic chapters include an assessment of the prospects for sectors of the Australian manufacturing industry, a detailed discussion of the government policies and and analysis of Australia's ongoing balance of payments/foreign liabilities problem.

Online Access

Long Term Forecasts 2008-2023 also comes with supplementary information in electronic format, including online access to our website to download chapters in PDF format, charts in MS Powerpoint and tables in MS Excel.

Online access may be shared with up to 4 other staff members for greater utilisation of the service.

Price:


Contact:

Kellie Osta

PH: +61 2 9959 5924


Report

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.
Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.
  • Full Report: Long Term Forecasts 2008-2023 (pdf, 1703kb)
  • Table of Contents (pdf, 33kb)
  • Overview (pdf, 172kb)
  • Introduction (pdf, 23kb)
  • Chapter 1 - Prospects For Growth (pdf, 156kb)
  • Chapter 2 - The Labour Market (pdf, 85kb)
  • Chapter 3 - Financial Conditions (pdf, 186kb)
  • Chapter 4 - International Developments (pdf, 77kb)
  • Chapter 5 - Trade and the Current Account Deficit (pdf, 103kb)
  • Chapter 6 - Government Policy and Expenditure (pdf, 92kb)
  • Chapter 7 - Population Trends (pdf, 87kb)
  • Chapter 8 - Consumer Demand Forecasts (pdf, 127kb)
  • Chapter 9 - Investment Forecasts (pdf, 159kb)
  • Chapter 10 - Industry Sectors (pdf, 168kb)
  • Chapter 11 - Forecasts for the Manufacturing Sub-Sectors (pdf, 127kb)

Tables

Excel document files for download by subscribers.
Excel document files for download by subscribers.
  • LTF 2008 Report Tables (xls, 977kb)

Charts

PowerPoint document files for download by subscribers.
PowerPoint document files for download by subscribers.
  • Charts: Long Term Forecasts 2008-2023 (ppt, 3106kb)