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Residential Property

BIS Shrapnel has extensive expertise in forecasting the housing market for investors and owner-occupiers, along with having a thorough understanding of demographic trends.

Residential Property Prospects 2016 – 2019

Report Published: June 2016


Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220


After strong house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne over the last two to three years, the upturn in these markets appears to be running out of steam with growth in activity and prices slowing. Meanwhile, price growth in the other capital cities continues to be limited, and even negative.

Changes to lending policy in response to APRA directives appear to be having an impact. Most policy changes have been aimed at slowing growth in investor demand, and this is now being reflected in weaker lending to investors. The decline in investor numbers has been offset by an improvement in owner occupier demand, particularly upgraders, despite a modest increase in owner occupier interest rates also coming through the second half of 2015. How has affordability been influenced by the out-of-cycle interest rate rises by the banks? What impact is the downturn in resource sector spending having on the economy and which markets will be most affected? Will the upturn in residential construction drive any markets into oversupply? Will the impact be different across the house and unit markets?

Residential Property Prospects 2016 – 2019 is a comprehensive report that provides a detailed and independent view of the fundamentals of the residential market and how they interact to drive activity and price growth across the different state markets. Forecasts are based on current and emerging trends, rather than media commentary around the 24 hour news cycle, with a three year outlook aimed to identify turning points in the market with a view to understand where price growth is likely to be, rather than where it is already occurring.

Residential Property Prospects 2016 – 2019 details the underlying assumptions behind our forecasts, with the reasoning behind each. This includes:

  • the economic outlook and business conditions
  • interest rate movements and timings, housing loan affordability
  • impact of Federal and State government incentives
  • net interstate and overseas migration
  • underlying demand and dwelling construction
  • stock deficiencies or oversupply in each market
  • rental growth and yields for detached houses and units by capital city
  • annual median house and unit price forecasts to June 2019, by capital city and also the regional areas of Newcastle, Wollongong, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Cairns (house price forecasts only)

A subscription to Residential Property Prospects 2016 – 2019 includes the main report, together with an update report published in December. Quarterly Market Briefs are also provided in September and March to keep you up-to-date with events impacting on the residential market and your organisation will have access to our team of residential property consultants and analysts throughout the year for enquiries or to discuss forecasts, content or methodologies. Reports are provided in Hard Copy only.

For further information download the extract or for enquiries please contact Angie Zigomanis on +61 3 8679 7304 or