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Commercial Property

BIS Shrapnel is recognised as Australia’s pre-eminent forecaster of commercial property markets. We aim to help our clients make the best decisions possible using available data and transforming it into value-added research solutions.

Retail Property Market 2014 – 2024

Report Published: August 2014


Contact: Beverley Taylor

+61 2 8458 4245

This is the eighteenth comprehensive study of the Australian retail market undertaken by BIS Shrapnel.

The report examines the overall structure of retailing in Australia and draws out key trends and issues in terms of both trading conditions and investment performance. It focuses on the main classes of institutional investment in the retail sector, and specifically considers prospects for regional and sub-regional shopping centres.

The report:

  • Identifies the key drivers of demand, separating them into cyclical and structural factors. It forecasts demand state by state and by store category over the next 10 years.
  • Assesses the distribution of retail turnover growth, in particular the rising market share of online retailing.
  • Examines trends in supply and forecasts retail construction by state over the next 10 years.
  • Estimates the impact of a lower $A on both consumer spending and retailer profit margins and their capacity to pay rent.
  • Discusses how the balance of demand and supply, overlaid by movements in the $A, is reflected in rents and centre incomes, and forecasts both regional and sub-regional centre income growth annually over the next decade.
  • Forecasts investment yields taking into account econometric analysis and the argument that ‘weight of money’ will push down retail yields.
  • Assesses what level of returns can be expected in future and whether retail property is a good investment.


REPORT – 2014

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.

REPORT: RETAIL PROPERTY 2014 – 2024 (pdf, 1.09 MB)


Excel document files for download by subscribers.



Quarterly updates will be available in September and December 2014 and March 2015.